Several gambling fallacies

[Moser1986]

Over the past 10 years in the casino buisness I have noticed some very common mistakes and misinterpretations in the casino. I would like to use this space to try to clear some of those up.




1. "You are going to win. "
What you need to tell you yourself is that you might win, but there is a great chance that you will lose. Convincing yourself that you are going to win might help while playing competitive sports, but it does nothing in the casino but make losing hurt more.

2. "You are due to win."
You have lost the past six times you have been to the casino; this means you are more likey to win on the seventh time, right? Good luck with that. Chances are you are going to lose again.

The reason is because nothing changes in the casino or in reality to make it more possible for you to be more likey to win the next time you enter a casino. If you have a one in ten chance of winning at any paticular game and you play ten times, losing each time... the odds that you will win next time are still one out of ten or the odds you will lose are 9 out of 10. Chance is a funny thing.

3. "Someone playing on the slot machine you were playing hit a jackpot after you walked away. If you had stayed, you would have won."
Sounds simple enough but it is wrong. while you were sitting there playing the machine the code in the random number generator the designates a jackpot probably came around a few times, but you didnt press the button at just the right split second. Also, slot machines do not become more likey to win over a time if they have not paid out any money.

Ever seen that game at any mall or wal-mart that has the string of lights and the object is to stop the movement of the lit light bulb over a paticular spot by pressing the button at just the right time in order to win a prize? Slot machines actually work on the same principal, except on a slot machine you cannot see where the light is at, and it is moving really fast.

You may have noticed the reels on the slot machine. The ones with the cherrys and bars and diamonds. They mean nothing. All the real action is taking place inside of the slot machine. Also, remember that when a slot rolls a "near miss", it is programmed to look like it almost won, but didn't. There is no almost when it comes to winning in the casino. You either win or not. There is no such thing as a near win.


4 . "The dealer has something to do with the outcome of the game."
Dealers have about as much input as a butterfly flapping its wings in china. Changing the shuffle method, spinning the ball slower, sending the dice out to player on an unlucky number, changing the dealer, etc. None of it means anything. Seriously. If the dealer had any control over the game the casino would encourage them in some way to work more for the house. This is not the case. I have been a dealer for more than 8 years. Not once has a casino manager or pit boss discussed how much we were paying out. And if I bragged to a casino manager about taking all of someones money..they would tell me to go away and not bother them anymore. They don't care. And why doesnt casino managers care? Because they know dealers don't have anything to do with it.

What I am getting at is...yelling and cussing at the dealer is stupid. Don't do it.

5. "Bad players make bad tables."
I see alot of people become hateful and even violent to someone that plays blackjack in a manner that people believe to reduce thier chance to win. There are many reasons for this, I believe.
Some of it is the human condition at play; where aggrivation from watching someone hurt themselves causes discomfort in the person watching.
The part you actually hear come out of anyones mouths, though, is the part where someone screams, "You are messing up the cards!!!!" "AUUUGGGGHHHH!!!!"
Most blackjack players have been at a table where somone takes a card when they should have passed in order to maximize thier chance of winning. Instead they take the card and make a hand or not, but the card they took would have caused the dealer to lose that hand. This is when all the moaning and whining about someone "messing up the table".
But what about all those times the player made a poor choice of play and actually helped the dealer lose? does anyone congradulate him/her for this? no. Should they? no.
This is because it really really doesnt matter in the long run. You odds do not change from blackjack table to blackjack table no matter what type of players are there.

6. "You are winning and now playing on the "houses money"
If you have the money in your hand, it is now your money. It doesnt matter where it came from, it is yours! Im not saying you shouldn't gamble it. If you came to gamble then do it until you feel like you've had enough. All I'm saying is remind yourself that what ever money you have in you possesion is yours.. not the houses. I have noticed that this is a common mistake made by many people when they do win. Many feel they feel like they have something that isn't thiers are beholden to the house because of it. Don't be afraid to take your money and run.

7. "Superstition."
The house has quite an edge over a player. Chances are that you might not win. The only thing that can make this worse is superstition. The casinos make a killing off of superstition alone.
For example: I heard a guest tell me one night, "I don't hit 13s ever". What this person doesnt understand is that the number thirteen has no qualities that make it different than any other numberic designation. When you do something like this you are allowing the house to have an ever bigger advantage over you. (13 is usually a bad hand)

That was just one example. But there are plenty of others. If you can think of any others, please share.

[Commodore]

that's a pretty great topic.

[Stak]

[Schroedingers Cat]

Hi!
Somebody ban me and throw away the key!
Thanks

Fixed.


Also

:gay:

[Schroedingers Cat]

[Schroedingers Cat]

As interesting as this new revision of the topic is, it makes my above comments look completely out of place.



What a madhouse Z2 has become.

[Ryan Ferneau]

Whoa, Stak pulled out the greatest image ever right there.

[Commodore]

hmm, one of moser1986's hobbies is being a serf.

[Schroedingers Cat]

I like your sig.

[Zenith Nadir]

i hate spongebob squarepants, but i love this image